Volume 5 Number 2 (Apr. 2015)
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IJAPM 2015 Vol.5(2): 76-85 ISSN: 2010-362X
doi: 10.17706/ijapm.2015.5.2.76-85

Application of Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Model to Forecast Trans Jogja’s Passengers

Kurrotul A’yun, Agus Maman Abadi, Fitriana Yuli Saptaningtyas
Abstract—Trans Jogja is a public transportation in Yogyakarta which is operated by Dishubkominfo DIY. It is one of the ways to overcome transportation problems especially traffic jams. The total number of the buses until now reaches to 54. In fact, it does not significantly overcome the traffic jam problem yet. Dishubkominfo DIY always makes some efforts to improve the Trans Jogja management. One of them is by giving good services to the passengers. So, it is important to predict the amount of the passengers of Trans Jogja. This forecast uses the data from July 1st 2014 – September 29th 2014. This forecast is based on Weighted Fuzzy Time Series (WFTS). To forecast using WFTS, there are some important steps. There are defining the universe of discourse U, defining the fuzzy sets, establishing fuzzy logical relationship, grouping, forecasting, defuzzification, assigning weights and the last is calculating the final forecast values. The data of passengers is not stationer. It must be stationered first by differencing the data. From the forecasting result, MAPE and MSE of testing data are larger than MAPE and MSE of training data. So, WFTS can be used to predict Trans Jogja passenger in the following time.

Index Terms—Forecasting, trans Jogja’s passengers, weighted fuzzy time series.

Kurrotul A’yun is with the Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, State University of Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Agus Maman Abadi and Fitriana Yuli Saptaningtyas are with the Department of Mathematics Education, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, State University of Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Cite: Kurrotul A’yun, Agus Maman Abadi, Fitriana Yuli Saptaningtyas, "Application of Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Model to Forecast Trans Jogja’s Passengers," International Journal of Applied Physics and Mathematics vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 76-85, 2015.

General Information

ISSN: 2010-362X
Frequency: Bimonthly (2011-2014); Quarterly (Since 2015)
DOI: 10.17706/IJAPM
Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Haydar Akca
Abstracting/ Indexing: Index Copernicus, EI (INSPEC, IET), Chemical Abstracts Services (CAS), Electronic Journals Library, Engineering & Technology Digital Library, Nanowerk Database, Google Scholar and ProQuest
E-mail: ijapm@iap.org
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